TOWERING INFERNO CALLED SYRIA

A change of guard in Syria seems to be a slow process compared to the ones in Tunisia – where the first spark became visible which within no time spread like a wild fire across Egypt, Libya and Yemen etal. New dispensations are already in the saddle in Tunisia, in Yemen, Libya and of late Egypt. An uneasy calm prevails in Egypt where Mohammed Mursi of Islamic Brotherhood has been elected to the post of President. Soon after he was catapulted to the highest post he is on a collision course with the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) by restoring the dissolved Parliament after the highest court of Egypt ordered its dissolution sometime ago stating technical reasons. With the army and judiciary on one side and Mohammed Mursi’s Govt on the other side an impending showdown is apprehended. Anyhow majority of Egyptian civilians on the side of the President, the Army and Court will have to tread a tough course. The aftermath is beyond prediction at the moment. Most probably another blood-shed. Tahrir Square might turn out to be a battle ground once again. The birth pangs of transition to a new dispensation, let us assume. We began with the civil war currently going on in Syria. Let’s concentrate on the developments in that country for more than sixteen months. Its estimated that approximately 17000 people including civilians and army personnel already killed, many more are expected to follow as the country is still on the boil with neither side ready for a compromise. Though former UN Secretary General Koffi Annan entered the scene as the special Arab -UN envoy ran pillar to post to bring about an amicable settlement by presenting a 6-point formula hoping for a cease-fire. Alas, both sides breached the ceasefire conditions forcing a desperate Annan to beat a retreat. A desperate disillusioned former Secretary General still playing backroom diplomacy but he remains unsure of his peace mission. Though NATO had a plan to intervene in Syria, the P5 nations – USA, UK, France, China and Russia could not pass a unanimous resolution in Security Council as the latter two, China and Russia took the side of Syria and both vetoed the resolution and as a result direct NATO intervention seems to be a distant possibility unlike in Libya. Both are staunch allies of Syria and may continue to be so. With the NATO conducting military exercises and flexing muscles in preparation for a showdown with Syria in the Meditterannean, a vigilant Russia has started moving its large flotilla to Meditterannean which will certainly serve as a check to NATO. Anyhow Bashar-Al-Assad though displaying a confident posture he is slowly losing the hold on power, his throne has started shaking with the protestors launching a raging battle with the armed forces ofcourse with the weapon supplies from across the border. After almost forty years of autocratic rule, first by Hafeez-Al-Assad, his father, then by his son Bashar-Al-Assad the civilians got fed up with autocratic rule who dream about a day, a moment when democracy finally dawns on Syria. Largescale corruption and the incumbent ruler’s royal life at the expense of tax-payers’ money, largescale unemployment, poverty and a host of such other things the protestors are determined to force him abdicate the throne. But Azad still remains adamant, flexing his muscles. Being an Alawi, an offshoot of Shias with the whole-hearted support extended to him by Iran which is also a Shia country his natural enemies are the Sunnis. Besides, Russia and China are in good terms with him. Though the opposition leaders have already gone to Russia seeking support Russia has not responded favourably to their requests. Russia wants a settlement which could find Dr.Azad still in the saddle while the Syrian opposition wants nothing but his ouster. With defections one by one by his close confidents who have turned tables against Assad and started supporting the rebels, Azad knows his hold on power is gradually loosening. Last week a Brigadier General Manaf Tlas, part of the Republican guard deserted him and sought asylum in Paris which was a severe blow to him. The Syrian Ambassador to Iraq Nawaf-Al-Fars followed in the footsteps of Brigadier General by quitting his post and fleeing to Qatar - bête noire of Syria - and exhorting the Syrian army and the revolters to turn their guns against the govt and oust it from power. As the days pass by Assad’s position as President of Syria is gradually losing steam but for the nemesis to catch up with him a long wait might be necessary. The final triumph however must be of democracy at a time the loud cries for democracy are ringing in our ears from various autocratic governments across the world.