16th general elections are scheduled to be far ahead if the UPA 2 Government could weather many a storm till 2014 in the run-up to the latter. UPA 2 at its own risk can either advance the polls at its own risk if the conditions look rosy or may be forced to step down in the event of something untoward. Hence the question is hypothetical. At present no such sign or possibility is that much visible.
A few states are scheduled to go to polls next year and beforehand civic polls are fast approaching. The impending elections, both Civic and Assembly polls are crucial for the Leftists and that is the sole reason behind this write-up.
Kerala and Bengal said to be the red citadels, I would say once - the entire political scenario has undergone changes in the above two states. Left from Kerala in the run-up to the civic polls and the subsequent assembly polls is weathering a political storm in its literal sense due to some unfortunate reasons within the leadership in the Kerala unit. The latest being one the appointment of C.P.Narayanan one among the Marxist idealogues in Kerala as the political secretary of Chief Minister V.S.Achuthanandan whose appointment by the State Committee was stoutly opposed by the latter. V.S even went to the extent of lodging a complaint to the Central leadership of the party against Narayanan’s appointment some months ago and consequently the decision was kept in abeyance. The bitter rivalry and differences of opinion on various counts between the state committee on the one side and the CM on the other side, former said to be under the control of his bete noire Pinarayi Vijayan are a public secret in Kerala. Achuthanandan’s ire towards C.P.Narayanan who is reported to be close to Pinarayi has already added to the tensions prevailing in the state unit. Factionalism always acts as a detriment to the future growth of a cadre-based party like CPM or for that matter any other communist party and on looking around the aftereffects of factionalism can be seen through out India resulting in mushrooming of Communist parties - even among the CPI (Maoists).
Further more, crass parliamentarianism is a crucial factor among other factors which are notorious and are known to its followers and the larger public like lines in one’s inner palms. Added to these, another simple truth, well-known also the precedence of alternate govts under Left front and UDF is a reality in Kerala. Hence the next chance or mantle most probably is to fall upon a UDF coalition Govt in Kerala in 2011, otherwise a miracle should happen.
Two fronts in Kerala though holding opposite views and principles are two sides of the same coin. The style of governance never changes, what all happened and still happening now under the LDF dispensation is certain to happen in the Congress Govt if such an eventuality were to happen that is most probable.
Now take West Bengal. The Marxist led Left Democratic Front Govt in Bengal which holds sway ever since 1977 after 30 years of unbroken rule this time faces daunting tasks ahead. The Trinamool Congress under Central Railway Minister Mamta Banerjee whose anger against CPI (M) is known across Bengal, after relentless struggles against the incumbent Government in 15th general elections and in the bye-elections in certain constituencies which were till then Marxist strongholds, and the last civic polls with scored gigantic victory with the help of congress were till then unheard of. Almost all polls she literally swept away, forcing the CPI (M) and its allies bite the dust.
Now with enthusiasm and ambition at its top, leaving the railway portfolio in the lurch which incidentally led to criticism by the opposition and her junior ministers, she is on a whirlwind tour of Bengal campaigning for the victory of her party in the ensuing elections be it civic or assembly elections. Sensing victory she has even demanded advancement of Assembly elections by 3 months to the chagrin of Budhadeb Bhattacharjea, Chief Minister of Bengal and his allies. Whether the Left Front Govt. will have to vacate Writers Building is a mute question after more than three decades in power seems a possibility and in the event of such an outcome, it will certainly be a misfortune not only to the CPI (M) and its allies, but to the Indian Communist movement as a whole. Getting wiped out from two citadels simultaneously means these two fronts will have to be satisfied with crumbs left here and there. The consequences of their own undoing with no one left to shed tears.
At least in the future if the Left Front could keep away from fence-sitters for cobbling together a third front at the state level and national level as these fence-sitters will have no qualms in changing colors as and when the situation demands, instances abound, recall the bailing out UPA 2 Govt with promises through back door support by some of them. B0y remaining consolidated and coming down to the grass roots, it would be invigorating if not for now, in the long run it would spring surprise to the Left Front. Otherwise get satisfied as a laughing stock. AKGs and Pramod Das Guptas are the need of the hour.
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