Monday, April 29, 2013

US’s PLAN TO INTERVENE DIRECTLY IN SYRIA


US seems to be at it again. Contrary to what Barack Obama, US President’s stated stand, a direct intervention in Syria seems to be an emerging possibility. Though President Obama perhaps drawing lessons from Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan preferred to tread cautiously in the case of Syria, US’s intelligence establishment  exert more and more pressure on him to intervene in Syria where the ruling regime and rebels are locked in a no-holds-barred battle since the last two years consequent to which approximately 80000 lives have already perished.
As an observer noted, unlike Libya under Muammar Gaddafi, Syria possesses sophisticated Russian-made radars, airplanes and surface-to-surface missiles and a more or less loyal army at Dr.Assad’s command. US will have to face a more determined Syria which incidentally has the support of Iran, which too supplies generous aid to the former so as to enable the latter to unleash a counter offensive against a formidable enemy like US.
Obama’s initial reluctance to intervene in Syria seems to be giving way to directly take on Assad’s forces on the pretext of Syria unleashing chemical weapons like nerve agents, sarin and vx which could result in seriously harming the innocent civilians. Relying on heresay reports would cause serious repercussions since the ultimate authority on the issue is that of United Nations.
Defence Secretary of US, Chuck Hagel, during a visit to Abudhabi hinted at a ‘game-changer’ in the case of Syria throwing the former’s ‘wait and see’ approach, seems to have resulted in ‘aggravating’ the situation.
US is already providing training to rebel forces camping in Turkey and thus preparing them to launch fierce attacks against the forces of the ruling regime under Dr.Bashar-Al-Assad. US is not content with that alone.
US apprehends the stock-pile of chemical weapons falling into the hands of militant entities like Al-Nusra and Al-Quaida elements who have connection with the hard-core militant elements of Pakistan. US is very well  aware that Al-Nusra and Al-Quaeda elements have sneaked into Syria in large numbers with the ultimate motive of capturing power fighting along with the rebels forces. Such an eventuality according to US, should have to be got rid of at any cost.
With Russia and China taking sides with Syria, US, with the support of Arab League countries will have to launch an all-out war in Syria, the repercussions of which are hard to imagine.
Plunging straight into a such an eventuality, US might find it hard to wriggle out of the situation if and when Assad is deposed. Unlike in Libya, US will have to deal with militant outfits like Al-Nusra and Al-Quaeda on the one hand and the powerful forces of Dr.Assad, on the other hand. Added to it, once intervened how long US forces would take time to achieve its aims of ousting Bashar-Al-Assad from power is anybody’s guess. Syria is not Libya and in the case of Libya UN had passed a resolution authorizing NATO forces to directly intervene in Libya. Accordingly the NATO forces along with Libyan opposition could effect a regime change though it took more time than anticipated. With the dust settling down in the general elections held in Libya, the power fell into the hands of an Islamic dispensation where peace in its true sense is still evasive. US had to pay dearly for its intervention in Syria with its Embassy falling under the attack of Ansar-Dine elements killing its Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other US employees.
The spectre of terrorism taking upper hand in Syria in the event of Assad’s fall from power haunts Syria too which US would find it difficult to deal with.
US’s strategy, it is reported, is that of creating a no –fly-zone over Syria first and launch aerial attacks which too could prove costly since unlike in Libya where certain areas are deserted, in the case of Syria most places are thickly populated where thousands of civilians could turn out to be the ultimate victims.
Put it mildly, wherever US had intervened in the past directly, it couldn’t bring about a durable solution be it in the case of Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. With domestic opposition turning more intense, US had to willy-nilly retreat after making a mess of the situation. In the case of Syria too the case will not be much different.      

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