US seems to be at it again. Contrary to what Barack Obama,
US President’s stated stand, a direct intervention in Syria seems to be an
emerging possibility. Though President Obama perhaps drawing lessons from
Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan preferred to tread cautiously in the case of Syria,
US’s intelligence establishment exert more
and more pressure on him to intervene in Syria where the ruling regime and
rebels are locked in a no-holds-barred battle since the last two years consequent
to which approximately 80000 lives have already perished.
As an observer noted, unlike Libya under Muammar Gaddafi,
Syria possesses sophisticated Russian-made radars, airplanes and surface-to-surface
missiles and a more or less loyal army at Dr.Assad’s command. US will have to
face a more determined Syria which incidentally has the support of Iran, which
too supplies generous aid to the former so as to enable the latter to unleash a
counter offensive against a formidable enemy like US.
Obama’s initial reluctance to intervene in Syria seems to be
giving way to directly take on Assad’s forces on the pretext of Syria unleashing
chemical weapons like nerve agents, sarin and vx which could result in
seriously harming the innocent civilians. Relying on heresay reports would
cause serious repercussions since the ultimate authority on the issue is that
of United Nations.
Defence Secretary of US, Chuck Hagel, during a visit to
Abudhabi hinted at a ‘game-changer’ in the case of Syria throwing the former’s ‘wait
and see’ approach, seems to have resulted in ‘aggravating’ the situation.
US is already providing training to rebel forces camping in
Turkey and thus preparing them to launch fierce attacks against the forces of
the ruling regime under Dr.Bashar-Al-Assad. US is not content with that alone.
US apprehends the stock-pile of chemical weapons falling
into the hands of militant entities like Al-Nusra and Al-Quaida elements who
have connection with the hard-core militant elements of Pakistan. US is very
well aware that Al-Nusra and Al-Quaeda
elements have sneaked into Syria in large numbers with the ultimate motive of
capturing power fighting along with the rebels forces. Such an eventuality according
to US, should have to be got rid of at any cost.
With Russia and China taking sides with Syria, US, with the
support of Arab League countries will have to launch an all-out war in Syria,
the repercussions of which are hard to imagine.
Plunging straight into a such an eventuality, US might find it
hard to wriggle out of the situation if and when Assad is deposed. Unlike in
Libya, US will have to deal with militant outfits like Al-Nusra and Al-Quaeda
on the one hand and the powerful forces of Dr.Assad, on the other hand. Added
to it, once intervened how long US forces would take time to achieve its aims
of ousting Bashar-Al-Assad from power is anybody’s guess. Syria is not Libya
and in the case of Libya UN had passed a resolution authorizing NATO forces to directly
intervene in Libya. Accordingly the NATO forces along with Libyan opposition
could effect a regime change though it took more time than anticipated. With the
dust settling down in the general elections held in Libya, the power fell into
the hands of an Islamic dispensation where peace in its true sense is still
evasive. US had to pay dearly for its intervention in Syria with its Embassy
falling under the attack of Ansar-Dine elements killing its Ambassador
Christopher Stevens and three other US employees.
The spectre of terrorism taking upper hand in Syria in the
event of Assad’s fall from power haunts Syria too which US would find it
difficult to deal with.
US’s strategy, it is reported, is that of creating a no –fly-zone
over Syria first and launch aerial attacks which too could prove costly since
unlike in Libya where certain areas are deserted, in the case of Syria most
places are thickly populated where thousands of civilians could turn out to be
the ultimate victims.
Put it mildly, wherever US had intervened in the past
directly, it couldn’t bring about a durable solution be it in the case of Iraq,
Afghanistan and Libya. With domestic opposition turning more intense, US had to
willy-nilly retreat after making a mess of the situation. In the case of Syria
too the case will not be much different.
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