Wednesday, May 18, 2011

AN IMPARTIAL STUDY OF ELECTION RESUTLS

It is a characteristic of writers especially freelance journalists to look at things with a different perspective and arrive at their own conclusions. For instance, the recently concluded elections to four States of Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Union territory of Pondicherry. The results poured in from each State became a subject of careful study and still conclusions are being arrived at by these writers. True a freelance writer’s success lies in reaching conclusions by looking from different angles.
Look at Kerala results.
Post-poll surveys and exit-polls gave results which pointed towards contrary results as against the results which came out on the counting date. Barring one or two, all predictions went awry and such trends are natural in the world of post-poll surveys and exit polls carried out by different agencies. Be that as it may here, I do not want to go to the ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ of such things.
A few writers looked at the results with different points of view and arrived at interesting as well as startling views. For example some are of the opinion that, yes, there did exist a VS factor (read V S Achuthanandan) otherwise the Left Democratic Front would not have come near the 70 mark out of a total seats of 140. If that factor was not there Left Democratic Front would not have gone that far due to the anti-incumbency factor. Some point out that no anti-incumbency factor was visible this time in Kerala, that is because of good governance provided by the LDF. Furthermore they go to the extent of making their views amply clear that if there was no factionalism in the party, LDF would have romped home this time. Prakash Karat, General Secretary of the party is squarely blamed for his inefficient handling of Kerala and Bengal matters. However in the end United Democratic Front led by Congress won by a wafer-thin majority of 2 seats. And Kerala has reputation experimenting with fronts alternatively this time too the case is no different.
In Tamil Nadu both post-poll surveys and exit-poll surveys went absolutely wrong. They had predicted whichever party came to power it would be by a few seats. Upsetting all calculations Kumari Jayalalitha’s AIADMK alliance romped home capturing a large chunk of seats relegating the ruling DMK (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) alliance to a poor second. The rampant corruption by Kalaignar govt was stated to be the reason behind its dismal performance. Ever since the news of 2G Spectrum scam broke out in Tamil Nadu, average Tamilians began to think differently and according to the freelancers people’s anger towards DMK alliance came in handy for Kumari Jayalalitha’s AIADMK alliance. Some are of the view that it was not out of love and worship of ‘Amma’ that people voted for her, that it was negative votes which worked in her favour. On the matter of corruption Jayalalitha too was reportedly not far behind Kalaignar. West Bengal produced a result, a handsome win for Mamta Banerji’s Trinamool Congress – Congress alliance. This result – this result alone – was a forgone conclusion and here only the post-poll surveys and exit-polls proved cent percent correct. Even before that all observers across India and Bengal were aware of the shape of things to come hence no matter of surprise to anyone even the Marxists. Singur and Nandigram came in handy for Mamata, she could very well cash in on them. Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee’s unilateral decision to go ahead with globalization and Foreign Direct Investment disregarding the opposition of peasants and share-croppers,forcible occupation of their land to help Tata and Salim Group of Indonesia, the resultant rebellion and blood-bath unleashed all fury against him and it was too late when ‘enlightenment’ dawned upon him. The grass-root level workers of the party, the left intellectual, artists and writers turned against Left Front govt enmasse and it is a naked truth that their ire against the Left Front has still not disappeared. Party Polit Bureau was hand-in-gloves with Buddha on the matter of FDI and globalization and therefore there is no point in casting aspersions on Buddha alone. Karat-Yechuri nexus should squarely take up the blame along with Buddha for bringing the LF to such a pass.
Assam gave a sweeping victory for Congress where even a scope for an opposition leader is absent. Tarun Gogoi has scored a hatrick win Assam as it is his Party’s third consecutive win.
Puducherry produced an unexpected verdict, this time to the shock of Congress. The breakaway group of N.Rangaswamy secured majority ending the rule of Valsi Raj there.
On weighing the pros and cons many would come to the conclusion that the man of the series this time is V.S.Achuthanandan in cricketing parlance.

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